Policy Paper: Strained by War? Tensions, Expectations, and Potentials in German-Ukrainian relations

Kyiv Dialogue published this policy paper on German-Ukrainian relations at the 17th Annual Conference. The aim of the policy paper was to take stock of German-Ukrainian relations and develop policy recommendations on how and in which policy areas the bilateral partnership can be strengthened. To this end, authors Inna and Mattia Nelles conducted over a dozen interviews with leading decision-makers and experts in Kyiv and Berlin.

Executive Summary

The public discourse and perception of Ukrainian- German relations is very much focused on the actual or perceived shortcomings of Germany’s support. Despite public demands and criticism voiced by the Ukrainian side, the relations are much better than their reputation or perception. Several Ukrainian and German government officials, politicians and experts noted that despite the sharp criticism of the Ukrainian Ambassador and the diplomatic scandals like the disinvitation of Germany’s Federal President, support for Ukraine remained unfaltering.. Nevertheless, the many frustrations of the Ukrainian side with Germany but also other Western partners were tangible and irritation occurred due to the slow decision-making process regarding the supply of heavier weapons in spring. Germany has been the largest European contributor to Ukraine since 2014 and has become one of the largest military and civil donors and partners of Ukraine since the start of the war. Yet, it still struggles to accept the role of a leading military power providing Ukraine with the weaponry not just to withstand the Russian aggression but also to defeat the Russian forces in Ukraine. Towards autumn, the public and political debate shifted towards the question of whether or not Germany is willing to provide Ukraine with tanks or infantry fighting vehicles. The longer the debate continues, the longer the German side hesitates, the bigger the negative repercussions for the bilateral relationship will be. The authors have also established that the German government has been struggling to find the right tone or narrative to justify to its public at home why continuous robust support for Ukraine is necessary. Until today, strategic communication remains the main weakness of German support for Ukraine. Even though Germany is now among the largest providers of military, financial aid or humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it struggles to communicate this fact adequately.

That strengthens the position of many critics who view Germany’s aid as “too little, too late”.

Overall, this paper finds that relations between the two states and their governments are better than their reputation and the aid provided to Ukraine is more substantial than many believe.

Based on the analysis of the current state of the bilateral relations, the paper identified ways to strengthen the cooperation. Each of the ways includes some broad and some specific recommendations that could stimulate further reflection and consideration for policy debate or further in-depth policy papers with more specific policy recommendation. The recommendations can be grouped in the following way:

I. creating a new narrative about Ukraine’s victory;

II. changing Ukrainian and German communication;

III. rethinking the instruments of German support;

IV. embracing Ukraine’s EU accession;

V. taking the lead on Ukraine’s recovery;

VI. keeping Ukraine on the mental map of Germany.

Germany is in a unique position to help Ukraine win this war and take up a leading role in the Ukrainian recovery. We believe that it should also become a lead advocate for Ukraine’s fast European integration and EUaccession. The substantial military aid provided offers a new facet of the relations, which should be embraced and developed. Germany, in particular, should invest into finding the right narrative about why Western and German aid in particular are important for the European peace order. Furthermore, Ukraine and Germany should adapt their strategic communication and not only focus on the shortcomings of their relations. For Ukraine a balance of criticism, public pressure and diplomacy seems more effective. At the same time, efforts will have to be undertaken to keep Ukraine on the mental map of the Germans and ensure that the war is not the only thing that Ukraine is associated with.